The investigation is stirring up political debate, is open to all kinds of interpretations and provides food for thought for right-wing parties who believe that too many sick workers are not actually sick.
The survey in question is a “thematic control” carried out by the Inami (health and disability insurance) on a category of workers whose disability is recognized up to the point of retirement. The aim was to determine whether this recognition, granted by mutual insurance companies, is justified.
A first batch of checks concerned 136 people whose pathology led to automatic recognition of disability up to the pension. We are talking here about severe cancers, quadriplegia, Alzheimer’s disease, coma… Of these 136 cases, only 2 should not have led, according to the Inami , to recognition of disability up to the pension, but to a disability limited in time.
“It’s still very serious”: in Brussels, a doctor caught selling medical certificates
The second batch involved 768 people whose file review led automatically, without a medical examination, to recognition of disability up to the pension. However, according to the National Institute for Health and Disability Insurance (INAMI), this recognition should only have been granted to 17% of them. For 56%, the disability should have been limited in time. And for 27%, the National Institute for Health and Disability Insurance (INAMI) terminated the disability altogether.
Clarinval attacks, Vandenbroucke moderates
On Saturday, in La Libre , the MR Deputy Prime Minister, David Clarinval , estimated on this basis that ” mutual insurance companies are lax” and he demanded that they be removed from monitoring the sick. There are too many ” false long-term sick people” , he hammered home Wednesday on La Première , estimating that the State could save between 1 and 4 billion euros per year by putting these people back to work.
Contacted by La Libre , his office stated: according to estimates, the Inami’s compensation expenditure for long-term sick people will increase from 15 billion euros in 2026 to more than 18 billion in 2030. Of the 260,000 people recognized as disabled until retirement, the office judges, on the basis of Inami’s control, that a quarter can return to work immediately and, generally speaking, that more than 80% will be able to return to work one day.
However, on Friday, on La Première, Social Affairs Minister Frank Vandenbroucke (Vooruit) said that no extrapolation could be made from the INAMI audit because it was based on a non-representative sample. The Clarinval cabinet nevertheless maintains that given the budgetary resources at stake, it should be possible to find 1 billion next year, and 4 billion by 2030.
A non-representative sample
La Libre has read the Inami’s “thematic audit.” In no case does it allow us to conclude that a quarter of sick workers are fake sick (which David Clarinval also doesn’t say). And it doesn’t even allow us to conclude that a quarter of workers whose disability is recognized up to the point of retirement could return to work immediately.
This share of a quarter of workers (27%) relates to the group of 768 people whose file review led to automatic recognition of disability up to the point of pension. But this share decreases if we take into account the other group of 136 people who do not pose a problem. And it says absolutely nothing about people whose disability was recognized after a medical examination. The sample of 768 people is therefore not representative of the diversity of situations.
The numbers are being manipulated, it’s deplorable. We must stop lying to satisfy our ambitions and fuel our ideology.
Furthermore, the INAMI audit was carried out in the first half of 2024, at the time of the application of new legislation on the monitoring of sick workers and the limitation of disability over time. However, this legislation was not clarified until July 2024. The purpose of the audit, described as an ” audit” by INAMI, was ” to identify management problems [and] problems of interpretation of the legislation” .
“These are controls aimed at promoting continuous improvement. Neither the control period nor the sample selection allow for extrapolation of the figures,” reacts Xavier Brenez, CEO of Mutualités Libres (including Partenamut). He counterattacks: ” The figures are manipulated, it’s deplorable. It’s a lack of professionalism on the part of certain political leaders, who immediately jump to the conclusion that the control of work incapacity should be removed from the mutual societies. I have no problem having the debate. But not on false arguments and false figures. We must stop lying to satisfy our ambitions and feed our ideology.”
Frank Vandenbroucke wants to abolish certificates of incapacity for work of less than four days
